| Situations
will sometimes arise at the poker table when you just know that your
opponent has you beat, but you should still call anyway. A perfect
example occurred recently on NBC's National Heads-Up Poker Championship
in a hand between me and my good friend, poker professional, Evelyn Ng.
In
the hand, Evelyn raised to 1,200 before the flop, and I called with
Js-9s. The flop came Jd-4h-3d, and I checked. Evelyn bet 1,600. At that
point, she was ahead in the match, and I only had 12,600 in chips left.
Finally,
after much thought, I decided to go all-in hoping that she couldn't
beat my pair of jacks. She thought about calling for quite some time
but eventually folded the 7d-4d.
On the surface, it might seem
like Evelyn made the right decision. After all, I had a pair of jacks
and she only had a pair of fours. With poker, though, as I hope you'll
learn from reading this column, there is often more to it than hand
strength alone.
First, let's look at the odds of her hand against mine.
Since
she could catch a four, a seven, or a diamond, to win the pot, her hand
was actually the slight favorite at 51 percent. In fact, the only hands
that she wouldn't be favored against would be two pair or three of a
kind. Even against trip jacks, she would still win the pot almost 30
percent of the time.
That's not the only thing she had to ponder.
Evelyn
was faced with a bet of 11,000, but with what was already put in before
the flop, as well as the bet she made on the flop, she'd have to risk
11,000 to win 16,600. She was even money to win the pot, but the pot
was laying her approximately 3-to-2 odds (16,600/11,000). Also, she had
to consider that this was an opportunity to end the match.
It's important to note that certain draws are so powerful that they can actually be the favorite to win the pot.
For
example, if you hold 5h-6h and the flop came 6d-7h-8h, you'd be the
favorite to win the pot — even against pocket aces. In fact, you'd be a
substantial favorite, improving to the winning hand about 64 percent of
the time.
Count the cards
There's a rule you can use to help figure out whether or not your drawing hand is a favorite against an opponent.
The
rule: After the flop, if there are 13 cards that will improve your hand
to the winner, then you're a very small underdog. If 14 cards can make
your hand, you'll be just about even money to win. Fifteen or more outs
and you're the favorite.
Here's a hand example I recently analyzed.
Player A's cards: 7c-8c
Player B's cards: Qh-2c
The Flop: Qc 7h 3c
Player
A had 13 cards to improve his hand (eight clubs, two sevens, and three
eights). His hand will win the pot 47 percent of the time.
Now,
change the card in Player B's hand from the 2c to the 2h, and Player A
actually goes from an underdog to a very slight favorite, winning the
pot 50.1 percent of the time. Even more enticing, in a hand where
Player A has 15 outs, he'd be a more than a 56 percent favorite.
You don't need a PhD in mathematics to play poker, but it will serve you well to remember these odds.
Pot should dictate
This
knowledge becomes increasingly important when playing in No Limit
Hold'em tournaments. An extreme example would be a situation where a
player has gone all-in, and you're the big blind with a pitiful hand
like 2-3 offsuit.
You know for certain that your opponent has
you beat, but that doesn't necessarily mean that you should fold.
First, calculate the pot odds you're getting.
Then, assess your chances of winning by counting your outs.
Here's
a final example: You have 400 in the big blind, and an opponent goes
all-in for 700. So, the bet facing you is only 300 more. Including the
small blind, you'd be risking 300 to win 1,300. That's over 4-to-1 pot
odds and is very favorable. Even if your opponent has a powerful hand
like A-K, you'd still get lucky and win the pot 34 percent of the time.
You
won't win at poker by simply playing good hands. In order to reach that
next level, you need to change the way you think about the game. Don't
always be concerned with whether or not you have the best hand.
Instead, focus on whether or not the pot odds dictate that you should
play the hand.
By Daniel Negreanu |
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