You won't see the NFL bill it as such, but Super Bowl XLIV pits the team that wanted a perfect season against the team that really didn't care.

Both the New Orleans Saints and the Indianapolis Colts, who will battle for pro football supremacy on Sunday evening in South Florida, at one point in the regular season sported pristine 13-0 records.

If you believe in karma — or at least in silencing those lippy 1972 Dolphins — then New Orleans is the team to root for in between $3-million television ads.

The Saints relished their chance to erase Mercury Morris and his 17-0 Miami teammates from the record books, devoting themselves to finishing a full regular season and playoffs with an unprecedented 19-0 mark. Alas, New Orleans lost to the Dallas Cowboys in their 14th game and ended the season with two more defeats.

The Colts wasted their opportunity to make history. They were 14-0 and leading the New York Jets by five in the third quarter when rookie head coach Jim Caldwell elected to pull his key starters, enraging many fans. Indy lost that game and its season finale in Buffalo — where Caldwell, curiously, played star pass catchers Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark until they both reached the 100-reception milestone.

Which approach was the right one? Hard to say, because both the Colts and Saints both secured the top seed in their respective conferences and now find themselves a step away from grasping that strangely undersized Vince Lombardi Trophy.

Who will win it? Here are a few clues, along with other essentials for Sunday's big game.

Super Bowl XLIV: New Orleans vs. Indianapolis (6:25 p.m. ET)

The line: Opened at Colts minus-4½, moved up as high as 6 at some books before settling in at 5 at the big Vegas outfits.

How they got here:

New Orleans came out firing from its first-round playoff bye, torching a good Arizona team 45-14 at the Louisiana Superdome to send Cardinals quarterback Kurt Warner into retirement. The ensuing NFC championship game proved a lot tougher, as Brett Favre and the Vikings outgained the Saints by 217 yards while Minnesota's defence prevented quarterback Drew Brees and the Saints from making their signature big plays. But the opportunistic New Orleans D forced five turnovers, including a key Favre interception in the final seconds of regulation, and Spicoli-esque kicker Garrett Hartley booted a field goal in overtime to send the Saints to a 31-28 win and the first Super Bowl in franchise history.

Indianapolis cruised to a 20-3 victory in the AFC divisional round by handcuffing Baltimore's vaunted running game, while quarterback Peyton Manning beat the Ravens' proud defence for a pivotal pair of touchdown passes late in the first half. That was a good warmup for the AFC championship game, as the cocksure Jets rolled into town riding a wave of confidence and the best defence in football. New York raced out to a 17-6 lead, and an upset seemed in the offing until something seemed to click in Manning's supercomputer of a brain. With Wayne, the favourite target of the NFL MVP, blanketed by all-pro cornerback Darrelle Revis, Manning turned to rookie Austin Collie for a 16-yard touchdown strike just before the half, added two more TD tosses after the break, and the Colts went on to win 30-17 to give themselves a shot at a second Super Bowl title in four years.

Key number: 926. That's how many points the Saints and Colts combined for in the regular season, with New Orleans topping the league at 510 and Indianapolis ninth at 416. So, naturally, the key to the Super Bowl is… defence. The ability to produce a key stop could be the difference. Both teams are generally mediocre in this department, with a few notable exceptions. The Saints are pretty good at defending the pass — mostly because they excel at creating turnovers, with aggressive safety Darren Sharper ready to snag errant throws — but their run prevention is awful. That may not be a problem against the Manning-centric Colts, who would rather not relegate their future Hall of Famer to feeding the ball to underwhelming halfbacks Joseph Addai and Donald Brown. Still, Caldwell would be smart to mix in a healthy portion of running plays until the Saints prove they can stop them. They haven't yet.

X-factor: Dwight Freeney's right ankle. The Colts' all-pro defensive end is listed as questionable for the Super Bowl due to a torn ligament. How important is Freeney, who led the team with 13½ sacks in the regular season? Well, the key to neutralizing the Saints' big-play offence is putting pressure on Brees, as the Cowboys and Vikings showed. If Indy can't get to the quarterback, he'll have time to zero in on weapons like receiver Marques Colston, running back Reggie Bush and tight end Jeremy Shockey.

The pick: During the regular season, the Saints went 13-3 and outscored opponents by an aggregate 169 points, best in the league. Indy went 14-2 with a plus-109 scoring margin, ninth in the league. So why, on a neutral field, are the Colts favoured by five points? Short-term memory, mostly. One of the largest television audiences in history witnessed New Orleans' less-than-impressive victory in the NFC title game, which happened immediately after Manning's marvellous dissection of the Jets. Another thing to consider: How many people have you heard saying they're backing the Saints? Seems everyone, from TV pundits to casual fans, is predicting a Colts blowout, even in light of the potentially devastating Freeney injury and a Saints defence that's capable of swinging the game by taking the ball away. Sounds like a good time to employ Ricky Roma's law of contrary public opinion: "If everyone says one thing, then I say bet the other way." In other words, take the five points. And don't be shocked if the Saints win the Super Bowl outright.

Now wouldn't that be a perfect ending?