You won't see the NFL bill it as such, but Super Bowl XLIV pits the
team that wanted a perfect season against the team that really didn't
care.
Both the New Orleans Saints and the Indianapolis Colts, who will
battle for pro football supremacy on Sunday evening in South Florida,
at one point in the regular season sported pristine 13-0 records.
If you believe in karma or at least in silencing those lippy 1972
Dolphins then New Orleans is the team to root for in between
$3-million television ads.
The Saints relished their chance to erase Mercury Morris and his
17-0 Miami teammates from the record books, devoting themselves to
finishing a full regular season and playoffs with an unprecedented 19-0
mark. Alas, New Orleans lost to the Dallas Cowboys in their 14th game
and ended the season with two more defeats.
The Colts wasted their opportunity to make history. They were 14-0
and leading the New York Jets by five in the third quarter when rookie
head coach Jim Caldwell elected to pull his key starters, enraging many
fans. Indy lost that game and its season finale in Buffalo where
Caldwell, curiously, played star pass catchers Reggie Wayne and Dallas
Clark until they both reached the 100-reception milestone.
Which approach was the right one? Hard to say, because both the
Colts and Saints both secured the top seed in their respective
conferences and now find themselves a step away from grasping that
strangely undersized Vince Lombardi Trophy.
Who will win it? Here are a few clues, along with other essentials for Sunday's big game.
Super Bowl XLIV: New Orleans vs. Indianapolis (6:25 p.m. ET)
The line: Opened at Colts minus-4½, moved up as high as 6 at some books before settling in at 5 at the big Vegas outfits.
How they got here:
New Orleans came out firing from its
first-round playoff bye, torching a good Arizona team 45-14 at the
Louisiana Superdome to send Cardinals quarterback Kurt Warner into
retirement. The ensuing NFC championship game proved a lot tougher, as
Brett Favre and the Vikings outgained the Saints by 217 yards while
Minnesota's defence prevented quarterback Drew Brees and the Saints
from making their signature big plays. But the opportunistic New
Orleans D forced five turnovers, including a key Favre interception in
the final seconds of regulation, and Spicoli-esque kicker Garrett
Hartley booted a field goal in overtime to send the Saints to a 31-28
win and the first Super Bowl in franchise history.
Indianapolis cruised to a 20-3 victory in
the AFC divisional round by handcuffing Baltimore's vaunted running
game, while quarterback Peyton Manning beat the Ravens' proud defence
for a pivotal pair of touchdown passes late in the first half. That was
a good warmup for the AFC championship game, as the cocksure Jets
rolled into town riding a wave of confidence and the best defence in
football. New York raced out to a 17-6 lead, and an upset seemed in the
offing until something seemed to click in Manning's supercomputer of a
brain. With Wayne, the favourite target of the NFL MVP, blanketed by
all-pro cornerback Darrelle Revis, Manning turned to rookie Austin
Collie for a 16-yard touchdown strike just before the half, added two
more TD tosses after the break, and the Colts went on to win 30-17 to
give themselves a shot at a second Super Bowl title in four years.
Key number: 926. That's how many points the Saints
and Colts combined for in the regular season, with New Orleans topping
the league at 510 and Indianapolis ninth at 416. So, naturally, the key
to the Super Bowl is
defence. The ability to produce a key stop could
be the difference. Both teams are generally mediocre in this
department, with a few notable exceptions. The Saints are pretty good
at defending the pass mostly because they excel at creating
turnovers, with aggressive safety Darren Sharper ready to snag errant
throws but their run prevention is awful. That may not be a problem
against the Manning-centric Colts, who would rather not relegate their
future Hall of Famer to feeding the ball to underwhelming halfbacks
Joseph Addai and Donald Brown. Still, Caldwell would be smart to mix in
a healthy portion of running plays until the Saints prove they can stop
them. They haven't yet.
X-factor: Dwight Freeney's right ankle. The Colts'
all-pro defensive end is listed as questionable for the Super Bowl due
to a torn ligament. How important is Freeney, who led the team with 13½
sacks in the regular season? Well, the key to neutralizing the Saints'
big-play offence is putting pressure on Brees, as the Cowboys and
Vikings showed. If Indy can't get to the quarterback, he'll have time
to zero in on weapons like receiver Marques Colston, running back
Reggie Bush and tight end Jeremy Shockey.
The pick: During the regular season, the Saints
went 13-3 and outscored opponents by an aggregate 169 points, best in
the league. Indy went 14-2 with a plus-109 scoring margin, ninth in the
league. So why, on a neutral field, are the Colts favoured by five
points? Short-term memory, mostly. One of the largest television
audiences in history witnessed New Orleans' less-than-impressive
victory in the NFC title game, which happened immediately after
Manning's marvellous dissection of the Jets. Another thing to consider:
How many people have you heard saying they're backing the Saints? Seems
everyone, from TV pundits to casual fans, is predicting a Colts
blowout, even in light of the potentially devastating Freeney injury
and a Saints defence that's capable of swinging the game by taking the
ball away. Sounds like a good time to employ Ricky Roma's law of
contrary public opinion: "If everyone says one thing, then I say bet
the other way." In other words, take the five points. And don't be
shocked if the Saints win the Super Bowl outright.
Now wouldn't that be a perfect ending?